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🇺🇸 United States
GDP1.6%
CPI4.2%
Rate3.75%
UE4.3%
🇪🇺 Eurozone
GDP-0.2%
HICP3.2%
DFR2.25%
UE6.2%
🇨🇳 China
GDP5.0%
PPI2.8%
LPR3.00%
UE~4.7%
🇯🇵 Japan
GDP0.6%
CPI1.5%
BoJ1.0%
UE2.7%
🇮🇳 India
GDP7.7%
CPI3.9%
Repo5.25%
UE6.6%
Improving
Stable
Deteriorating
Mixed
Diverging
Critical
| Theme |
US | EU | CN | JP | IN |
| ▶ Inflation |
↓︎CPI 4.2% |
↓︎HICP 3.2% |
↕︎Core 1.1% |
↕︎CPI 1.5% |
↓︎CPI 3.9% |
|
| ▶ Monetary Policy |
→︎3.75% |
↓︎DFR 2.25% |
→︎LPR 3.00% |
↓︎BoJ 1.0% |
→︎Repo 5.25% |
|
| ▶ Property |
↑︎6.47% 30Y |
↓︎Permit -3.1% |
↕︎T1 +0.2% |
↕︎Real -1.3% |
→︎— |
|
| ▶ Trade & Tariffs |
→︎— |
↓︎Auto tariff |
↕︎Exp +14.1% |
↕︎Def ¥379bn |
↕︎Def $28.2B |
|
High Importance
| Theme |
US | EU | CN | JP | IN |
| ▶ Labor Market |
↕︎UE 4.3% |
→︎UE 6.2% |
→︎— |
↑︎UE 2.7% |
↕︎Urban 6.6% |
|
| ▶ Consumer |
↓︎Save 2.6% |
→︎Retail +0.9% |
↓︎Retail ↓ |
↓︎Spend -1.8% |
↑︎PFCE +7.7% |
|
| ▶ Credit |
↑︎HY 2.65% |
↓︎M3 2.7% |
↕︎3M 1.64% |
↑︎Cr +5.0% |
↑︎Cr +12.3% |
|
| ▶ Growth |
↕︎GDP 1.6% |
↓︎GDP -0.2% |
→︎GDP 5.0% |
↑︎GDP 0.6% |
↑︎GDP 7.7% |
|
Monitoring
| Theme |
US | EU | CN | JP | IN |
| ▶ Currency / FX |
↓︎DXY ~101 |
→︎EUR 1.139 |
↑︎CNY 6.77 |
↓︎JPY 161 |
↑︎INR 94.7 |
|
| ▶ Fiscal / Debt |
→︎— |
→︎— |
↓︎D/GDP 106% |
↓︎Supply risk |
↓︎Def 4.4% |
|
| ▶ Demographics |
→︎LFP 61.8% |
→︎— |
↓︎WAP ↓ |
↓︎WAP 73.3M |
→︎— |
|
Scenario Probabilities · 12-Month Outlook
US
Soft Landing51%
Stagflation26%
Recession23%
EU
Stagflation-lite55%
Soft Landing23%
Recession22%
CN
Managed Deceleration53%
Stimulus Overshoot27%
Property Contagion20%
JP
Successful Normalization58%
Wage-Price Overheat22%
Yen Crisis20%
IN
Disinflationary Recovery57%
Oil-Relapse25%
Monsoon Shock18%